In a damning report assessing Metro's contribution to the climate crisis, Metro found that its transit initiatives are inadequate to offset the significant increase in greenhouse gases resulting from Metro's own freeway expansion projects.
Metro often portrayed climate impacts as something outside the agency's purview. In 2020, for example, Metro's staff report blamed regional development for putting housing too far from jobs. And a November 2021 Metro staff report regarding Highway Program impacts noted that “GHG [greenhouse gas] production and reductions go beyond the assets Metro controls.”
The report quantified the climate impacts of current Metro initiatives - bus and rail transit, active transportation, and road expansion ("new lane miles") - as well as a potential future congestion pricing initiative.
Chart showing greenhouse gas impacts of current and proposed Metro initiatives - via Metro Report
Metro includes two different methodologies for estimating how much additional driving (VMT - vehicle miles traveled) will result from the agency's planned road/freeway expansion. The low-end estimate comes from a relatively conservative Southern California Association of Governments model. The high-end estimate is from the UC Davis Induced Travel Demand Calculator.
Overall, through 2047, Metro transit and active transportation initiatives are expected to reduce GHG emissions by 2.7 million MTCO2e (Million Metric Tonnes CO2 equivalents).
Meanwhile, Metro road expansions would increase GHG emissions by 2.6 million to 10.1 million MTCO2e.
Metro chart showing comparison of greenhouse gas emissions. The two red boxes represent high and low estimates for greenhouse gas emission increases from Metro road expansion. The thin green boxes represent current Metro transit and active transportation initiatives. The blue Congestion Pricing box represents a possible future initiative not yet approved. Chart via Metro report
In responding to the staff findings, Metro boardmembers touched on several issues.
L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti questioned whether the increased adoption of electric cars would reduce the GHG emission increases from Metro freeway expansion. Staff responded that projected electric car adoption levels had already been factored into the emission numbers. Garcetti requested a December 2022 report back on electrification and emissions. [Garcetti will leave the Metro board of directors in December, when his mayoral term ends.]
It is encouraging that Metro is finally acknowledging its own role in harming the climate. Next comes the harder step: taking action. As Streets for All founder Michael Schneider argued in an L.A. Times editorial this week, Metro needs to "stop investing in expanding highways" altogether. Hopefully today's report confirming Metro's contributions to emissions will shake Metro leadership into responding with the urgency this deserves. Soon it will be too late.
New concepts for rapid bus service across the 626 have ironed out the questions of where an East-West route would run and where demonstrations could begin.
Metro and Caltrans eastbound 91 Freeway widening is especially alarming as it will increase tailpipe pollution in an already diesel-pollution-burdened community that is 69 percent Latino, and 28 percent Black