Skip to Content
Streetsblog Los Angeles home
Streetsblog Los Angeles home
Log In
Streetsblog USA

Driving Declines Spell Big Trouble for Turnpikes

Traffic on the New Jersey Turnpike has declined 10 percent since 2005. Turnpike officials had predicted it would rise 3 to 5 percent annually. Photo: Wikipedia
Traffic on the New Jersey Turnpike has declined 10 percent since 2005. Turnpike officials had predicted it would rise 68 percent by 2023. Photo: Wikipedia
false

What the New Jersey Turnpike Authority did in 2005 was no different than what almost every other state and regional transportation agency was doing at the time. It predicted that traffic volumes would rise at a healthy clip every year for about 30 years into the future. Then it estimated its revenues based on those figures and issued bonds for a $2.5 billion road widening project.

Today we know that traffic hasn't risen at all since 2005. New Jersey's projections weren't just a little wrong -- they were wildly inaccurate. The bonds were predicated on a 68 percent increase in traffic by 2023. It's not going to happen: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that turnpike traffic has actually dropped 10 percent since 2005.

Even so, Chris Puchalsky, associate director of systems planning at the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, told the Inquirer that local leaders aren't blinking.

This chart shows the combined 20-year traffic projections of state and local governments in recent years compared to actual traffic levels. Image: State Smart Transportation Initiative
This chart shows the combined 20-year traffic projections of state and regional transportation agencies around the U.S. in recent years -- the colored lines -- compared to actual traffic levels -- the black line. Image: State Smart Transportation Initiative
false

"We need two or three more years of data" before reconsidering the assumptions, he said.

The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission made a similar gamble in 2007, when it predicted traffic would rise 3 to 5 percent annually and started issuing up to $900 million in bonds annually for road and transit projects around the state based on those projections. Rather than rising, the Inquirer reports, traffic has been flat. Pennsylvania hoped to repay the bonds with the increased toll revenues and by adding tolls to I-80.

But the additional traffic never materialized, and the Federal Highway Administration rejected the proposed toll on I-80. Now the turnpike is paying much less every year for state transportation projects, but it is still saddled with a rising debt load -- $8 billion, according to the Inquirer.

Here's the kicker. Nikolaus Grieshaber, the turnpike's chief financial officer, told the Inquirer that Pennsylvania is revising its projections downward. It will now predict a traffic increase of 1.5 percent annually.

Nationally, vehicle miles traveled increased 0.6 percent last year, so Pennsylvania is still predicting its traffic will increase two and half times faster than the nation as a whole in 2013.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog Los Angeles

Brightline West Breaks Ground on Vegas to SoCal High-Speed Rail

Brightline West will be a 218-mile 186-mile-per-hour rail line from Vegas to Rancho Cucamonga - about 40 miles east of downtown L.A. - expected to open in 2028

April 23, 2024

This Week In Livable Streets

Active Streets Mission-to-Mission, LAPD reports on its use of force in 2023, Pasadena Transit plans, Metro subway construction, and more

April 22, 2024

CicLAvia Opens Venice Boulevard – Open Thread

CicLAvia opened six miles of Venice Boulevard - from Culver City Station to Venice Beach

April 22, 2024
See all posts