Declining Traffic: How Will It Affect U.S. Transportation?

TheDecember 2008 figures (the latest available) show that motor vehiclemiles traveled were down about 3.6% for 2008 as compared with 2007.

Three thoughts:

1.It is remarkable that miles traveled continued to decline quite sharplyeven in the last part of 2008. During that period, gas prices weredeclining dramatically -- which creates a strong incentive to drivemore...

2. This continued drop in miles drivendramatically upsets transportation planning as it has been done overthe past 50 years in the U.S. All road and highway planning is done onthe assumption that travel miles will continue to increase at a 2-4%annual rate as they have done (on average) through the entire 20thcentury.

Now -- even after the U.S. recovers from thecurrent economic difficulties -- predictions are for miles driven togrow less than 1% annually.

Mostroad projects are planned using 10, 20, and 50-year traffic forecasts.Even just 10 years out, the difference between 1% and 3% annual growthrate is very large. Twenty years out it's a 2:1 difference.

Are we planning our roads for twice the traffic that will really exist in 20 years?