This week's staff report presentation confirms that J Line BRT electrification is not going to meet its initial project date of completion this month. The report states that Metro "has identified an optimum charging strategy" for the J Line - with a $50 million price tag, on the agenda for board approval this month. Also, Metro is currently testing five (of 60 ordered) 40-foot electric buses manufactured by BYD, with "production to start upon proof of design."
Because the earlier pilots slipped with no new electric bus procurement on deck, the overall electrification timeline is slipping. The 2030 end date remains, but the ramping up is expected to occur more steeply. In 2017, Metro had planed to have 2,000 buses (80 percent of the fleet) electric by 2028. The agency now projects only 1,500 by 2028.
Metro's latest projection backs way off of earlier electrification plans (below.) For example, the 2017 projection showed 500 electric buses in 2023; this 2021 projection pushed the 500 electric bus total back to 2026. Image via June 2021 Metro presentationMetro's latest projection
2017 Metro graph showing planned transition to electric buses. Image via 2017 Metro presentationGraph showing Metro's planned transition to Zero-Emission Buses. Image via Metro staff report
Metro now anticipates that full electrification will cost $3.5 billion dollars. Metro's staff report states that "Over a 10-year period [note that this would already delay completion two years, pushing it back to 2032], this is an average of $350 million per year. In recent years Metro’s bus capital expenditures have averaged approximately $190 million. Therefore, Metro will need to identify funding sources to address the gap of approximately $160 million per year."
Metro now anticipates that full bus electrification will cost $3.5 billion. Chart via Metro presentationMetro bus electrification costs - from Metro presentation
To catch up to its schedule, Metro expects to "continue to pursue competitive grants [and] identify additional funding sources."
Foothill Transit CEO Doran Barnes credits their successes to a "commitment to community," a "spirit of innovation," and fruitful collaborations with numerous partners
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